Example
What a pick looks like
Real format, real data, real reasoning. This is exactly what lands in your inbox.
BUY NO
Confidence 87% · Market 58% → True 27%
Kalshi is pricing this at 58% YES, but NWS shows a forecast high of 104°F. GFS model agrees at 105°F. ECMWF shows 103°F. All three models are 5-7°F below the 110°F threshold with ±3.5°F uncertainty — meaning the statistical probability of exceeding 110°F is approximately 27%. Strong edge on NO.
🌡 NWS high: 104°F · GFS: 105°F · ECMWF: 103°F — all models well below 110°F threshold
FAQ
Questions
Is this financial advice?
No. These are AI-generated signals for informational purposes only. You decide whether to place a trade. We are not registered financial advisors. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Why weather markets specifically?
Weather has a clear ground truth: actual measured temperature, precipitation, etc. We can compare authoritative government forecasts (NWS/NOAA) and global models (GFS, ECMWF) directly against market prices. When professional meteorological models consistently disagree with a Kalshi price, that's a quantifiable edge — unlike political or economic markets where the "true probability" is harder to anchor.
How are picks generated?
Every morning we fetch live Kalshi weather markets, scrape NWS, Open-Meteo GFS, and ECMWF forecasts for every relevant city and date, then use Claude Fable 5 to calculate the statistical edge. We model temperature distributions using normal probability — if the forecast high is 88°F ± 3°F and Kalshi says 70% chance above 95°F, we flag that as a strong NO with ~28% edge.
What markets are covered?
Every daily temperature market Kalshi runs — high-temp markets in 19 cities and low-temp markets in 17, including NYC, Chicago, Miami, LA, Boston, Phoenix, Vegas, SF, Atlanta, DC, Seattle, Houston, and more. That's 430+ markets scanned every morning, and we surface the biggest edges wherever they are. These settle on official NWS station readings — and our forecasts target those exact stations.
When are picks delivered?
Every morning by 7:30 AM Eastern — before the day's temperature markets heat up. If no markets have sufficient edge that day, you'll receive a short email explaining why — we never force picks just to fill the email.
How do I cancel?
Click "Unsubscribe" in any email footer, or reply to any email. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your billing cycle. No cancellation fees.